The U.S. oil-and-gas production surge could boost domestic and global greenhouse gas emissions in the future, a new study released via the nonpartisan think tank Resources for the Future shows.
Why it matters: Daniel Raimi’s analysis takes a broad, global look at the shale boom’s climate effects in the years ahead and focuses in-depth on the role of higher oil production.
This is in contrast to many prior discussions, which tended to emphasize how higher gas production has cut U.S. carbon emissions over the last decade as the fuel has shoved coal aside in power markets.
What they did: Raimi explores a range of oil-and-gas production levels over the next dozen years based on last year’s version of the Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook.
He overlays those projections with emissions estimates for the potent GHG methane associated with shale development.And from there, the study explores how the rise in oil output will reduce global prices as more U.S. crude enters the market and how those price changes may increase global oil consumption.
What they found: There are several reasons to think that what’s been the climate benefit of gas replacing coal could become a different story going forward, including these possibilities…
High gas output starts